ArcelorMittal has proposed a $1.4 billion expansion in Liberia, a move that promises to usher Liberia into a new, glorious era of ore production.
Monrovia, March 3, 2025/ The deal economists say will bring major economic benefits, including 2,000 new direct jobs and increased government revenue from 40 million to about $200 million each year
The company, which still has six years remaining on its current agreement, is set to expand its rail and processing operations while upgrading infrastructure such as the railway, port, and a new ore processing plant.
Already, ArcelorMittal’s expansion project has created 3,000 new jobs for Liberians, and if the expansion proceeds, the government stands to gain an annual revenue boost from approximately $150 million addition. This substantial increase could meaningfully contribute to President Joseph Boakai’s administration’s goal of raising national revenue to $1 billion, especially given that Liberia’s current budget stands at $800 million.
However, the expansion plan faces intense opposition from High Power Exploration (HPX), a Guinean mining company that is lobbying aggressively to derail the deal. The main point of contention centers around control of Liberia’s railway, a crucial transportation infrastructure for mining operations in both Liberia and Guinea.
Key Issues at Stake
The dispute over the railway is rooted in HPX’s own self-seeking, deeply rooted in an anti-AML agenda. HPX and its collaborators, for obvious reasons, do not want AML as operator of the rail.
The first amendment to ArcelorMittal’s Mineral Development Agreement (MDA), signed in 2006 and ratified in 2007, included provisions for third-party access and for ownership of the railway and port to eventually revert to the Government of Liberia (GoL). While ArcelorMittal has consistently cooperated with the government regarding potential third-party rail users, discussions have stalled due to external influences unrelated to AML.
In 2019, the governments of Guinea and Liberia signed an agreement allowing limited transport of Guinean ore through Liberia, capping at an annual maximum of five million tons per annum (mtpa). HPX, which operates in Guinea, now seeks to transport its ore through Liberia under significantly different financial terms.
While ArcelorMittal is willing to pay $200 million annually in revenue to Liberia, HPX’s proposed deal would contribute only between $5 million and $10 million for transport fees. Despite this stark difference, HPX insists that ArcelorMittal should not remain the railway operator—a demand that ArcelorMittal argues is unfair.
A Matter of Equity and National Interest
ArcelorMittal has invested approximately $800 million in rebuilding Liberia’s railway, which was severely damaged during the country’s civil war. The company asserts that it should remain the operator of the rail, given its long-term commitment to Liberia, its role in mining Liberian iron ore, and its employment of thousands of Liberians. ArcelorMittal contends that if HPX were in its position, it would not accept being forced to relinquish operational control under similar circumstances.
With Liberia standing to gain $200 million annually from ArcelorMittal’s expansion compared to just $10 million from HPX’s proposed arrangement, the question remains: should HPX be allowed to block a deal that holds the potential to significantly boost Liberia’s economy, create thousands of jobs, and help the government meet its national revenue targets?
The Boakai administration faces a critical decision that will shape Liberia’s economic future and the strategic management of its natural resources.
