Liberia-President Joseph Nyuma Boakai and his government, in line with the rescue schema, have set into motion an ambitious development agenda intended to put the country on the right footing of holistic development in a clear and methodically critical roadmap spanning a four-year period, between 2024 -2029.
Developmentally, the Liberia largely lags behind countries that have made enormous and fundamental progress in human and infrastructural development, and is being referred to as one of the poorest countries on the planet.
The President’s development roadmap for the country, after a year of his presidency, spelled out in the recently released ARREST Agenda for Inclusive Development (AAID), is the country’s fourth post-conflict medium-term National Development Plan (NDP) (2025- 2029), and is fulcrumed on key short and long terms pillars.
The framework development document does not only provide clear-cut potential if maximized that could spur cross-cutting development, but also places focuses on specific actions that help to ensure immense contributions to Liberia’s transition to a lower middle-income country.
The formulation of the AAID did not come out of the blue sky, as Liberians throughout the breadth and length of the country were afforded opportunities to make substantive inputs.
The process began in May 2024 and involved extensive consultations across the 136 administrative districts, 15 counties, and 11 budget sectors, government institutions, development partners, civil society organizations, private sector, Diaspora, the youth, and people with disabilities.
Stakeholders’ inputs, together with findings from relevant reports were analyzed, consolidated, harmonized, and validated to finalize the current AAID, while It building on lessons learned and achievements from previous medium-term development plans notably, the Agenda for Transformation (AfT) and the Pro-poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development (PAPD).
The AfT and PAPD are development roadmaps crafted and proffered by the erstwhile regimes of former Presidents Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and George Manneh Weah.
“The AAID is strategically aligned with Liberia’s National Vision 2030 and several international, continental and regional development frameworks, such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Africa Agenda 2063, ECOWAS Vision 2050 and the Doha Program of Action (DPoA),” it is stated.
It is also built on a foundation of inclusiveness, sustainability, justice and equality, transparency and accountability, assuring an atmosphere of peace and reconciliation buttressed by a people-centered development, encompassing local ownership, cause-consequence approaches and digital transformation.
“Several basic assumptions underlie the AAID’s intent, direction, goal setting, policy formulation, resource allocation, and implementation outcomes,” the agenda pointed out.
Macro economic frameworks
The document laid out and identified sectoral approaches to aid efforts towards the realization of the overall objectives set out.
Every development agenda takes into consideration so many factors that support line objectives. The government considers macro assumptions which are vital for Liberia’s development planning and are influenced by the global economic landscape, which focuses on such factors as trade dynamics, technological advancement, and financial stability, all of which affect growth prospects.
The government determined that assumptions are further influenced by established historical legacy, political dispensation, and current socio economic challenges pertaining to the national level, stressing that the behavior and impact of these assumptions have shaped the current political economy of the country.
“The medium-term macroeconomic framework for Liberia (2025-2029) endeavors to foster sustainable economic growth and improve citizens’ well-being amid current global and national challenges,” the government development agenda identified, and further named key priorities as economic diversification, infrastructure development, fiscal consolidation, and social protection, with strong emphasis on strengthening governance and enhancing human capital.
The country GDP growths portend a promising look as far as macro assumptions are concerned. “The projected GDP growth is promising, starting at 5.1 percent in 2024, reaching 5.8. percent by 2025, and averaging 5.9 percent through 2029,” the document captured.
This trend is expected to be driven primarily by mining, agriculture, and manufacturing, it is indicated.
Accordingly, the mining sector is expected to peak at 9.2 percent growth due to new investments, while agriculture is projected to average 7.0 percent, significantly contributing to food security and employment.
While other sectors may look greatly positive, manufacturing and tourism sectors are currently underperforming; however, with the synergies associated with the two, any stimulation would substantially increase the projected GDP over the planned period.
The crafters disclosed the strategic framework provides a structured approach for addressing the country’s developmental challenges, guiding resource allocation, and promoting sustainable economic growth.
It states: “The macroeconomic framework supports coherent economic policy to enhance inclusive growth and stability, ultimately contributing to poverty reduction, job creation, and improved living standards through a structured approach to development.”
“The framework provides a clear roadmap for achieving long-term economic transformation, guiding policy formulation, resource mobilization and allocation, and promoting accountability. Operational effectiveness will be driven by appropriate policies and programs that position the nation to leverage its natural resources, improve governance, and strengthen its infrastructure and social systems,” it is further stated in the agenda for development.
By this, climate change issues will be mainstreamed, and that economic growth is inclusive and sustainable.
However, the government identified enormous challenges despite these encouraging trends, including structural challenges due mainly to past conflicts, corruption, and mismanagement.
Also, the government reckoned how the country continues to be listed among the poorest countries in the world, while it also faces high income inequality with 35.3 percent Gini Coefficient, high multidimensional poverty standing at 45 percent and limited structure transformation, all of which reflected in a stagnant Human Development Index (HDI) of 177th out of 191 countries. Similarly, the overall progress towards attainment of the desired outcomes for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is less than satisfactory.
“Only 20.3 percent of SDGs indicators are on track. Liberia has a significant youthful population, with nearly 75 percent under 35 and 41.5 percent under age 18, but most of whom are engaged in low productive informal jobs,” it is noted.
Additionally, the government noted that Liberia’s development agendas are challenged by the country’s ineffectiveness in programming, planning, developing, and utilizing human capital with the requisite tools to diversify and expand development outcomes.
The government realized that “Introducing digital technologies to shift governance behavior, enabling the private sector to drive local production to achieve socio-economic progress goes a long way in addressing the human capital deficit challenge.”
“The impact of these challenges has undermined public trust and stymied investment, resulting in a narrow revenue base and persistent budget deficits. In 2023, economic growth moderated to 4.6 percent, with projections for 2024 at 5.1 percent due to improvements in agriculture and fisheries,” it further asserted.
It is recounted that the services sector accounted for 37.5 percent of GDP, highlighting the need for diversification, while fiscal deficits have contributed to rising public debt, with a debt-to GDP ratio of 55.7 percent in 2023.
It states that the monetary sector struggles with inflation, which rose in 2023 to 10.1 percent, in addition to effective management of a dual currency system. Externally, Liberia faces a growing trade deficit, reliant on imports that strain foreign reserves.
“To foster sustainable growth, the country must improve governance, diversify its economy, enhance infrastructure, and attract both domestic and foreign investments, while addressing structural vulnerabilities,” government identified in its development agenda.
“As the AAID targets interventions that would improve the livelihood of citizens especially for youth, women and the vulnerable population effective management of these areas will be crucial for achieving inclusive and sustainable economic development,” it is further noted.
Growth and Development Potential
The Liberian government under President Boakai’s leadership announced that the country has significant growth potential for socioeconomic transformation and sustainable development.
Its young population offers an opportunity to harness the demographic dividend through education and training of the youth, especially in agriculture, technology and manufacturing.
“The Government’s commitment to peace, stability and predictability creates a pre-cursor to a favorable investment climate,” stated the government.
“Furthermore, the country possesses abundant natural resources such as iron ore, gold and timber, as well as fertile soils for food and cash crops including cassava, rice, palm oil, rubber and cocoa, among others.”
The AAID also enhances trade through its seaports which facilitates regional cooperation, noting that the nation’s cultural diversity presents excellent opportunities for cultural and eco-tourism, generating jobs and income.
The agenda states that with strong international support and partnerships Liberia can set up the desired infrastructure, especially in transport, energy, and ICT to boost connectivity and spur sustainable economic growth and development.
“Liberia’s advantaged points include the following: (i) commitment to peace and stability; (ii) rich natural resources; (iii) strategic geographical location; (iv) demographic dividends from a rising young population; (v) cultural heritage and diversity; (vi) strong international support and partnerships; (vii) potential for infrastructure development; (viii) agricultural and resource-based value chains; and (ix) environmental resilience and sustainability,” the government identified in the agenda.
Recognized in the development framework is the fact that the country is said to be endowed with immense growth and developmental potential.
The government noted that understanding and benefiting from these advantageous positions is crucial for ensuring the successful implementation of the AAID strategies to promote sustainable and inclusive economic growth.
It stated that “to unlock these potentials, it is critical to take the necessary actions to ensure appropriate and expeditious responses to the fundamentals that drive the theory of change.
It said the Theory of Change (ToC) provides a structured approach on how specific interventions lead to desired outcomes through a situational analysis and identification of critical change points.
“The ToC sets strategic goals and objectives aligned with Vision 2030, including necessary assumptions for change. The primary challenge for Liberia’s development is equipping human capital with the requisite tools and introducing digital technologies to shift governance behavior, enabling the private sector to drive local production to achieve socio-economic progress,” government recognized as part of the development agenda.
Also, it said development impact, focusing on long-term effects of initiatives on communities and economies, is crucial in planning, promoting accountability, stakeholder engagement, and sustainable outcomes.
Also, the 2025-2029 AAID incorporates organizational and development planning layers to enhance management and strategic thinking.
It accounts for key development drivers such as agribusiness, infrastructure, rule of law, education, sanitation, and tourism, alongside filters (set of criteria that interventions must address) such as child and youth focus and engagement, gender balance, employment, informal economy formalization, climate change, business environment, digitization, and peace and reconciliation.
The Liberian government development roadmap states that these elements foster inclusive growth and resilience, emphasizing interlinkages among sectors to achieve common goals., adding that the “AAID seeks to create a sustainable framework for improving living standards and advancing socio-economic development in Liberia thereby contributing to the nation’s transition to a lower-middle income status.”
